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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-28T00:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-28T00:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47836/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption from Active Region 14494 (centered near S04W16) starting around 2026-07-27T23:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/294/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-01T17:40Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: OSPREI
Prediction Method Note:

Basic info:
Models to run: IP
Ensemble Request:
Number of OSPREI runs: 1
Target Source:
satellite: Earth
Simulation Start:
Start date and time: 2026-07-28 09:14
CME Properties:
Radial distance of the CME at the start of the simulation: 21.5
CME latitude: 2
CME longitude: 24
CME tilt: 10
CME velocity: 363
CME AW (face on): 31
CME AWp (edge on): 10.333333333333334
CME Mass: 3.79
Aspect ratio - central axis: 0.75
Aspect ratio - cross section: 1
Flux Rope Properties:
Handedness/poloidal field sign: +1
Axial field sign: +1
ANTEATR Settings:
Simulate CME-driven sheath: True

Lead Time: 94.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-28T19:09Z

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